ECB on hold and lack of urgency of rate cuts
Canadian inflation and retail sales will be launched soon
FX Market Overview
I’m investing in brick companies. If that wall between Mexico and the US it is built, I want to make a few pounds before Donald Trump really ramps things. Or, of course, we could see the wife of another president came to power in America. At the same time, the current First Lady is doing karaoke carpool with James Corden and Boris Johnson is the face of Britain by foreign governments. The world has become a little crazy-8-crazy does not.
The European Central Bank kept its base rate on hold at 0% and does not set bond purchases when they met yesterday; their first meeting since the vote UK to leave the EU. They saw no need for immediate policy changes, but left the door open to new stimuli, as needed. It is difficult to know what they could do reality; negative interest rates have limited effect and there is little evidence that the huge volumes of bond purchases do nothing to prop up stock markets. However, the euro strengthened slightly on the news and stock markets in the EU remained stable. French purchasing managers’ indices this morning will address the euro. I think the forecasters are too optimistic, so be prepared for weakness in the Euro if any of these indexes fall about 50 fundamental level.
data from the UK showed that the main streets were plagued by bad weather and fears pre-referendum in June. Sales rose 4.3% in the year, but 0.9% compared to May. Whether you are investing with a warmer climate in July and, despite the nervousness Brexit is unknown, but it will be interesting. Sterling slipped a bit in the news and is likely to fall further when the indexes of purchasing managers published today. It was inevitable that a vote to leave the EU would lead to a drop in confidence, but provided that the services sector is one better than 49.0, the pound may strengthen even today. In these indexes 50 is the dividing line between positive and negative feeling, so we have to assume that everyone will be below 50. Sterling seems to be stuck with $ 1.32 and € 1,
This afternoon brings Canadian inflation data and retail sales. Forecasters do not expect any growth in retail operations, but are looking for a small increase in consumer price inflation in line with the recovery of oil costs and energy. The Canadian dollar may also strengthen by a penny or so if that is proven to be true.
And in 1844, William Archibald Spooner was born. The man who gave rise to the term, spoonerisms, switching syllables or beginning of the word, either intentionally or by accident, but often comically. As a professor at Oxford, he told an indifferent student who had “tasted two worms” for “Hissing all his lectures Mystery” and in a wedding that was pronounced “kisstomary curse the bride.” We have a standard description of a certain brand of chocolate in our house. We look like Mairy Dilk (my wife spoonerises all the time), and my daughter coined the term ‘Hipotominous’ for large aquatic animals, which is now the only name we have for hippos from my family. Funny how these things stick.